Lowman S. Henry |
Commentary:
Primary Colors
Republican voters will get a race for governor
by Lowman S. Henry, CEO
Lincoln Institute of Public Opinion Research
The declining value of endorsements by political parties was illustrated recently by the decision of Republican gubernatorial candidate Bill Scranton to announce prior to the GOP's endorsement meeting that he would run in the primary endorsed or not. The Scranton move was unusual in that he was in a highly competitive battle with former Pittsburgh Steeler star Lynn Swann for the coveted GOP endorsement, the only such nod that matters much in statewide politics these days.
In calling for an open primary, however, Scranton sets himself up as the "reform" candidate in the race in a year where being blessed by the "establishment" is likely to be lethal. There is a school of thought that winning a party endorsement could be the "kiss of death," especially if voters (as expected) are in the same "throw-the-bums" out mode as they were last November.
Republican State Committee leadership reacted predictably, touting the sanctity of the endorsement process and making "the sky is falling" predictions over the now-certain primary fight. Party leaders don't want to see millions spent on a primary fight that might otherwise go toward defeating the well-funded Governor Ed Rendell. They argue such a fight would be divisive and lead to defeat.
But history is not on their side. If you look back, elections in which the Republican Party has been successful in recapturing the governor's mansion have come not after uncontested primaries, but rather after hotly contested ones. Dick Thornburgh prevailed over Arlen Specter and four others in 1978 then went on to defeat the highly favored former Pittsburgh Mayor Pete Flaherty in November. Again in 1994, Tom Ridge was challenged by then-Attorney General Ernie Preate and a host of other well-qualified contenders and defeated Lt. Governor Mark Singel, who conventional wisdom favored to win.
Conversely, anointing a candidate can be fatal. Four years ago state Republican bosses shot themselves in the foot by sticking with Mike Fisher when fate had placed Mark Schweiker in the governor's office in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks that resulted in Tom Ridge resigning and heading off to Washington to become Homeland Security czar. Rather than go with an incumbent, the party cleared the primary field for Fisher, who was trounced by Rendell. Schweiker, meanwhile, went on to become a national hero for his role in the Que Creek mining disaster. And, Scranton himself was nominated for governor in 1986 in an uncontested primary, and lost a close race to former governor Robert P. Casey.
The king-makers this year have aligned with Swann, who brings tremendous assets to the table. But, he has refused to debate his primary opponents before the state committee endorses and has been adept at avoiding specific answers to any policy question. That strategy provoked the Scranton call for an open primary.
All of which may play to the best interests of the GOP. In Scranton the party has an experienced candidate who served with distinction as Lt. Governor to Dick Thornburgh. In Swann, there is star-power and an engaging personality. And former business advocate Jim Panyard will ensure that economic issues (typically a GOP strong suite) stay fore-square on the agenda.
This is not a bad combination of personalities. A primary fight will battle test all three, and raise the profile of whomever emerges the winner in May. And unlike Fisher, who was never really able to jump start his campaign after running unopposed in the primary, this year's nominee will be in high gear in May.
Lowman Henry is Chairman & CEO of the Lincoln Institute of Public Opinion Research, Inc., a Harrisburg-based non-profit, educational foundation, and host of the Lincoln Radio Journal.
