Lowman S. Henry |
Commentary:
A Tale of Two Candidates
Black voters look differently at Swann and Steele
by Lowman S. Henry, CEO
Lincoln Institute of Public Opinion Research
In both Pennsylvania and Maryland the Republican Party is set to
nominate prominent African Americans for top offices. Former Pittsburgh
Steeler and ABC broadcaster Lynn Swann has a clear path to the
Republican nomination for governor in Pennsylvania, while Maryland Lt.
Governor Michael Steele is the GOP's choice for the U.S. Senate seat
being vacated by retiring Senator Paul S. Sarbanes.
How much support Swann and Steele will receive from the black community
in their respective states is the subject of much speculation. Both
will need to make inroads into this traditionally heavily Democrat
constituency in order to win their races. Recent polling numbers reveal
that Steele is poised to do just that, but Swann has yet to connect with
African-American voters.
The Washington Post on April 6, 2006 published information contained
within an "internal document" prepared by a Democrat strategist that
reveals fears Steele could snare as much as 44% of the black vote in
Maryland. African-American voters make up a larger percentage share of
the electorate in Maryland than they do in Pennsylvania, so such a
showing by Steele would virtually guarantee his election to the Senate.
This is causing great consternation among Free State Democrats.
Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania, a recent Quinnipiac University poll found
Swann floundering among black voters. Incumbent governor Ed Rendell,
who is white, received the support of 74% of the African-American voters
surveyed, while Swann attracted just 12%. Another 12% are undecided in
the race. It is typical for Democrat candidates to win well over 90% of
the black vote. Thus a 12% showing by Swann would be an improvement over
what white candidates typically receive, although not an MVP
performance. Conversely, should Steele even approach the 44% Democrats
fear he could win, it would shatter the Maryland Democrat coalition.
Why though, does Steele have a shot at over 40% of the black vote, while
Swann barely gets into double digits? Part of the answer lies in voter
recognition. Steele is the incumbent lieutenant governor in Maryland.
He along with Governor Robert Ehrlich ran a brilliant campaign just four
years ago. They were the first Republicans to win their respective
offices since Spiro Agnew back in the 1960s, and have dominated news
coverage of state government ever since. Swann is a household name in
western Pennsylvania as a sports star during the Pittsburgh Steelers'
glory years in the 1970's, but is not well known outside of that base.
Having never run for public office before, Swann has no real political
identity with voters - black or white.
But something deeper is at play. The insider memo written by the Democrat strategist in Maryland suggests that black voters would,
according to the Washington Post: "readily abandon their historic
Democrat allegiances after hearing Steele's messaging." In other words,
Steele has something to say. He has a message. He is giving blacks a
reason to vote for him, and the message is resonating.
Swann, however, has been notoriously reluctant to say anything of
substance. Possessed of an engaging personality and celebrity mystique,
Swann wows crowds just by being Swann. His campaign, however, appears
to be following a deliberate strategy of never having him say anything
of substance. Swann is passionate when talking about football, and he
makes a compelling case that he is a natural leader. But, he has staked
a position on few issues and often fumbles when pressed for details.
In order to appeal to voters - black or white - you must have a message.
Lt. Governor Steele has laid out a clear and precise vision for America.
Swann's campaign is fond of comparing him to another non-politician who
became a state governor - Ronald Reagan. Reagan was the great
communicator who honed "the vision thing" to perfection. If Swann wants
to follow in Reagan's lofty footsteps, the time has come for him to take
a page out of the Reagan playbook and start showing some vision of his
own.
Lowman Henry is Chairman & CEO of the Lincoln Institute of Public Opinion Research, Inc., a Harrisburg-based non-profit, educational foundation, and host of the Lincoln Radio Journal.
