The race for Governor of Pennsylvania will top next year’s ballot and the time is at hand for candidates to declare their intentions. Unlike 2022, when there was a crowded Republican primary ballot, voters next year will have fewer choices.
On the Democratic side incumbent Governor Josh Shapiro is likely to run unopposed, or face token opposition, to his re-nomination. Republicans fielded nine candidates in 2022, but only two or three candidates are likely to be on the ballot next year.
U.S. Representative Dan Meuser had been touring the state and scuffling with Shapiro as he pondered a run for the state’s top office. However, he recently announced that he would not run for governor and instead remain in congress where the GOP holds a slim majority.
Speculation now centers on two other potential candidates: state Treasurer Stacy Garrity and state Senator Doug Mastriano. Garrity has twice won statewide office. She won re-election as state Treasurer last year garnering the most votes ever for a statewide candidate in Pennsylvania. Mastriano was the GOP’s nominee in 2022. He scored an impressive primary election victory; but then failed to build upon that base ultimately losing to Shapiro in a landslide.
There are many reasons for the smaller field of potential GOP candidates, not the least of which – unlike in 2022 when then-Governor Tom Wolf was term limited and could not run — there will be an incumbent seeking re-election in 2026. That makes winning the General election more difficult.
Prior to the 1967-68 state constitutional convention Pennsylvania governors were limited to one term. In 1974 Milton Shapp became the first governor eligible to run for a second term which he succeeded in doing by defeating the Republican nominee, Drew Lewis.
That commenced a decades-long tradition of governors serving two consecutive terms with the office swinging back and forth between the Republican and Democrat parties every eight years. That held true until 2014 when Tom Wolf defeated incumbent Governor Tom Corbett who became the first, and so far, only governor to be denied a second term.
Looking back challengers to incumbent governors seeking re-election have not been successful. In 1982, a wave election year for Democrats, Congressman Allen Ertel came close to defeating incumbent Governor Dick Thornburgh. He fell short. Challengers after that fared even worse. In the 1990 election Auditor General Barbara Hafer lost in a landslide to incumbent Governor Robert P. Casey, Sr. State Representative Ivan Itkin was steamrollered by Governor Tom Ridge in 1998. Former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann suffered the same fate running against Governor Ed Rendell in 2006.
As mentioned, the streak was broken in 2014 when Tom Wolf defeated incumbent Governor Tom Corbett. But, in 2018 Republican Scott Wagner failed to oust Governor Tom Wolf from the Governor’s Residence. Next year’s election will determine if the eight year cycle has begun anew.
On the surface Governor Josh Shapiro appears to be a formidable candidate. He won convincingly in 2022, albeit against a weak campaign. He was a serious contender to be Kamala Harris’s running mate in last year’s presidential election.
But, as the saying goes, his support is like the Susquehanna River – a mile wide and an inch deep. Fault lines appeared during his brief time on the national stage. The Democratic party is deeply divided over the Israel-Palestine war. Shapiro has given lip serve to school choice. He has failed to deliver on that promise angering partisans on both sides of the issue. His administration’s inept handling and lack of candor surrounding a sexual harassment scandal involving one of his cabinet secretaries is a festering wound.
Next year Shapiro will be facing a vastly different political landscape. His party’s lead in registered voters has virtually vanished. In 2022 Democrats held a 507,000 voter lead over registered Republicans. That lead is now about 175,000 and dropping. And Donald Trump is back in the White House with a vested interest in derailing Shapiro’s own presidential ambitions.
Shapiro’s national profile is both a plus and a minus. On the plus side he will be able to tap into the Democrat party’s national fundraising base meaning he will likely be able to raise significantly more dollars that his Republican opponent. The flip side to that coin is the GOP candidate can raise money from those who want to knock Shapiro out of presidential contention.
Thus the 2026 gubernatorial campaign is shaping up to be vastly different from 2022. For now, Josh Shapiro is the clear front-runner. But one year ago, hardly anyone would have predicted Dave McCormick would defeat incumbent U.S. Senator Robert P. Casey, Jr.
That is why we have elections – anything can, and often does, happen.
(Lowman S. Henry is Chairman & CEO of the Lincoln Institute and host of the weekly American Radio Journal and Lincoln Radio Journal. His e-mail address is lhenry@lincolninstitute.org.)
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