by Lowman S. Henry | March 14, 2006

Black voters look differently at Swann and Steele

In both Pennsylvania and Maryland the Republican Party is set to nominate prominent African Americans for top offices. Former Pittsburgh Steeler and ABC broadcaster Lynn Swann has a clear path to the Republican nomination for governor in Pennsylvania, while Maryland Lt. Governor Michael Steele is the GOP’s choice for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by retiring Senator Paul S. Sarbanes.

How much support Swann and Steele will receive from the black community in their respective states is the subject of much speculation. Both will need to make inroads into this traditionally heavily Democrat constituency in order to win their races. Recent polling numbers reveal that Steele is poised to do just that, but Swann has yet to connect with African-American voters.

The Washington Post on April 6, 2006 published information contained within an “internal document” prepared by a Democrat strategist that reveals fears Steele could snare as much as 44% of the black vote in Maryland. African-American voters make up a larger percentage share of the electorate in Maryland than they do in Pennsylvania, so such a showing by Steele would virtually guarantee his election to the Senate. This is causing great consternation among Free State Democrats.

Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania, a recent Quinnipiac University poll found Swann floundering among black voters. Incumbent governor Ed Rendell, who is white, received the support of 74% of the African-American voters surveyed, while Swann attracted just 12%. Another 12% are undecided in the race. It is typical for Democrat candidates to win well over 90% of the black vote. Thus a 12% showing by Swann would be an improvement over what white candidates typically receive, although not an MVP performance. Conversely, should Steele even approach the 44% Democrats fear he could win, it would shatter the Maryland Democrat coalition.

Why though, does Steele have a shot at over 40% of the black vote, while Swann barely gets into double digits? Part of the answer lies in voter recognition. Steele is the incumbent lieutenant governor in Maryland. He along with Governor Robert Ehrlich ran a brilliant campaign just four years ago. They were the first Republicans to win their respective offices since Spiro Agnew back in the 1960s, and have dominated news coverage of state government ever since. Swann is a household name in western Pennsylvania as a sports star during the Pittsburgh Steelers’ glory years in the 1970’s, but is not well known outside of that base. Having never run for public office before, Swann has no real political identity with voters – black or white.

But something deeper is at play. The insider memo written by the Democrat strategist in Maryland suggests that black voters would, according to the Washington Post: “readily abandon their historic Democrat allegiances after hearing Steele’s messaging.” In other words, Steele has something to say. He has a message. He is giving blacks a reason to vote for him, and the message is resonating.

Swann, however, has been notoriously reluctant to say anything of substance. Possessed of an engaging personality and celebrity mystique, Swann wows crowds just by being Swann. His campaign, however, appears to be following a deliberate strategy of never having him say anything of substance. Swann is passionate when talking about football, and he makes a compelling case that he is a natural leader. But, he has staked a position on few issues and often fumbles when pressed for details.

In order to appeal to voters – black or white – you must have a message. Lt. Governor Steele has laid out a clear and precise vision for America. Swann’s campaign is fond of comparing him to another non-politician who became a state governor – Ronald Reagan. Reagan was the great communicator who honed “the vision thing” to perfection. If Swann wants to follow in Reagan’s lofty footsteps, the time has come for him to take a page out of the Reagan playbook and start showing some vision of his own.