Once upon a time the General Election season kicked off at Labor Day. That was before the advent of early and/or mail in voting and the trend to a never-ending election cycle.
Despite the 2028 mid-term cycle having been in high gear for months, if not years, we can still pause at the Labor Day milestone for analysis of the nation’s political climate. It can best be described as stormy with both major political parties facing headwinds that have knocked them off course.
The trends of history, which hold true until they don’t, would suggest the 2026 mid-term elections should be a rout for the Democrats. The party of the president elected in the preceding election typically takes a drubbing in the mid-terms. Ronald Reagan, Barak Obama and other former chief executives can tell you a bit about that.
This year could be different. Republicans and Democrats alike have engaged in a brutal redistricting battle that has resulted in dramatically reducing the number of competitive congressional districts. In 1994, President Bill Clinton saw Republicans flip eight seats in the Senate and a net gain of 54 seats in the House of Representatives to claim unified GOP control of congress for the first time since 1952.
It is next to impossible for President Trump to suffer such a lopsided rejection in 2026. However, the Republicans hold a narrow three seat majority in the U.S. Senate and a slim, ever changing (due to resignations and deaths) single digit majority in the U.S. House. So, Democrats don’t need large numbers to regain control.
The top concern of voters, as it almost always is, remains the economy. Democrats scored big wins in the 2025 elections by focusing on “affordability.” Donald Trump owes much of his 2024 election win to voter dissatisfaction with years of rampant inflation under former President Joe Biden.
Passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” renamed the “Working Families Tax Cut Act” (who knew?) prevented what would have been the largest tax increase in American history from taking effect. The Trump Administration has implemented numerous policies aimed at energizing the economy and addressing the core causes of the affordability crisis.
The plan had been for the benefits of these policies to begin being felt at the kitchen table by late Spring when many taxpayers would see larger than usual tax refunds. Republicans were on message until . . . President Trump launched a massive military attack on Iran.
What was initially predicted to be a four-to-six weeks incursion has dragged on through the Summer with no end in sight. The Iranians, riddled with internal factions and power struggles, have proven negotiation to be impossible. As a result, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to shipping disrupting the world’s oil supply.
The price of a gallon of gasoline has an outsized impact on public perception of the economy. It is highly visible. You see the price posted along every highway, and energy costs ripple through the economy as fuel is needed at various points through the supply chain. While inflation under Donald Trump has been far less than the massive spikes experienced during the Biden Administration, the cumulative effect is to drive costs to record highs.
Legislatively, Republicans have been consumed by efforts to pass the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility or SAVE Act. It contains measures vital to ensuring election integrity, but it lacks the votes in the Senate needed for passage. The GOP’s fixation on the SAVE Act and the military action in Iran have completely obliterated any affordability messaging.
Democrats, however, seem determined to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. The dominant political story this Summer has been the success of the radical socialist wing of the party in Primary election races. Most of those races have been in deep blue districts, but the exceedingly narrow victory of Abdul El-Ayed in in the battleground Michigan U.S. Senate primary put a must-win state for the Democrats in play.
While radical socialist policies may resonate in deep blue areas, they are a prescription for defeat in more “purple” or swing districts. Such districts are, by definition, populated by a voter base that is neither far Left, nor far Right. The GOP playbook will focus heavily on tying Democrat candidates in those districts to the party radicals now dominating the headlines.
As Labor Day approaches both Republicans and Democrats are off message with neither being focused on the affordability issue. As Democrat consultant James Carville once famously said “It’s the economy stupid.” It still is – but nobody appears to be listening.
(Lowman S. Henry is Chairman & CEO of the Lincoln Institute and host of the weekly American Radio Journal and Lincoln Radio Journal. His e-mail address is lhenry@lincolninstitute.org.)
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