We are in the heart of the baseball season – and there’s a lesson, or an insight, from baseball that can help us understand the dynamics among Israel, Iran and America. I certainly don’t want this analogy to trivialize the conflict. It has roots that go back thousands of years, and with today’s mega-weapons, it has the potential to flare up into World War III or worse – a truly existential, apocalyptic struggle. But I suggest that there is an aspect of human nature at work here that a comparison with baseball can help illuminate.
In baseball, there is something called The Codes. The Codes are a set of unwritten rules that are nonetheless firm rules. One of the better-known Codes involves a pitcher and a batter. If a pitcher on Team A is perceived to have intentionally hit a batter on Team B, then Team B is compelled by the Codes to strike back, typically by having the Team B pitcher retaliate by hitting a batter on Team A. The question is, how hard?
An unskilled observer would look at any retaliation as an escalation, and any failure to retaliate as submission and thus a loss of honor. But the unwritten Code of baseball allows a retaliation that de-escalates the contest while preserving honor. If the first hit was minor, the retaliation could be as simple as a brush-back pitch. If the first hit was a beanball, a hit on the batter’s head, then the retaliatory hit might be on the arm or leg. It will hurt, or it doesn’t meet the Code, but it won’t hurt as much as the first hit, the beanball. But if the retaliation is harder than the initial hit – a hard pitch to the throat or head powerful enough to knock the batter to the ground, then that’s an escalation, and a bench-clearing brawl is the likely next scene.
Last Saturday night, America hit Iran with a beanball – a shot right to the head. It was targeted and precise. It could have been even more powerful, but it wasn’t. It was surgical.
Iran’s sense of honor compelled a response. I think we all know that honor and pride are deeply held values in Iranian culture. The response was measured: an attack on a nearby American military base, but not a cataclysmic one. It may have even been preceded by some kind of warning. Iran’s honor was preserved, but the conflict was not escalated.
Then President Trump called it “very weak,” which was humiliating. Humiliation required another retaliation. The Code demanded it, and Iran satisfied the requirement of the Code by firing another round of missiles, this time aimed at America’s ally Israel, not another American base, violating the hastily announced cease fire.
This time President Trump responded with exceptional verbal bluster, even dropping an F-bomb on national television, but not another bombing. The retaliations followed the same code as the Baseball code. If both sides will leave things where they stand at this moment, recording this commentary several days before you hear it, then the cease fire has a chance to develop into an end to the conflict. Each side can claim to be in favor of peace.
The Baseball Codes exist and continue to be a force in spite of not being written because they are based on a profound understanding of human psychology. We must hope and pray that the same kind of understanding prevails among Iran, Israel and the United States.
Colin Hanna is president of Let Freedom Ring, USA