The vice president seeking to succeed the president with whom he was serving struggled to disassociate himself from an unpopular war. Politically wounded, the president remained a dominate personality and demanded uncompromising loyalty.
This might sound like the situation in which Vice President J.D. Vance currently finds himself. It was, however, the box in which Vice President Hubert H. Humphrey attempted to escape from as he sought to disassociate himself from President Lyndon B. Johnson and win the presidency in the 1968 election. Humphrey, too weak to stand up to Johnson, lost a close race to Richard M. Nixon. The unpopular war in Vietnam was the dominant issue in the campaign.
The day after the 2026 mid-term election resulted in Democrats winning large majorities in both the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, Vice President J.D. Vance began his effort to achieve what Humprey could not. In a lengthy social media post Vance said: “The real reason we lost (the mid-term elections) is obvious to everyone . . . the reason we lost is the war.” Then, to mollify President Donald Trump and his unforgiving MAGA base Vance added: “The president himself said so last night.”
The vice presidency has not been a well-trod pathway to presidency. Sixteen vice presidents have become president, only six doing so without the president dying in office or succumbing to an assassin’s bullet. Of those six only four – John Adams, Thomas Jeferson, Martin Van Buren and George H.W. Bush – immediately succeeded the administration in which they served. Richard M. Nixon and Joe Biden were elected after intervening presidencies.
Thus does Vance begin his expected quest for the presidency fighting the currents of history. Prior to the mid-term elections polling showed Vance as the prohibitive front runner. Following that election that status is now in jeopardy.
Other potential candidates were quick to pounce. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis aimed his fire at congressional Republicans. During interviews the day after the election DeSantis said the failure of congressional Republicans to deliver on election promises contributed to the mid-term rout.
DeSantis heaped criticism on congress for failing to codify President Trump’s immigration executive orders, delaying judicial confirmations and generally disappointing voters who had given the GOP unified control of the national government.
U.S. Senator Ted Cruz posted a substantial analysis on X saying Republicans had lost touch with ordinary voters and their financial struggles. He further criticized tariffs and the war in Iran.
Meanwhile, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christy, a vocal Trump critic who had been exiled to a beach chair in Wildwood, resurfaced with an “I told you so” attitude dipping his toe into the 2028 presidential race.
A mid-term congressional blow-out inflicted on party in power is the historic norm. Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama all suffered the same fate yet came back to win re-election two years hence. Donald Trump – having already served a presidential term – cannot seek re-election creating what is now a wide-open race for the 2028 Republican Presidential nomination.
The Iran war itself is a betrayal of the MAGA movement and distracted from the GOP’s considerable achievements on the economic front. That combined with the Left’s turn-out generating hatred of Donald Trump created a perfect storm. How President Trump handles the war and the economy over the next year will determine the degree of difficulty facing especially J.D. Vance, but whoever becomes the GOP’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Another contributing factor to GOP losses was candidate selection. The president prioritized personal felty to him over electability. The question now is will he again put his thumb on the scales in the 2028 election cycle? Will he endorse in the presidential race? Congressional races? Will his endorsement continue to be decisive?
There is already an underlying debate whether the GOP should return to its Reagan/Buckley traditional conservative principles or continue down the populist path. The mid-term election results give new oxygen to traditional conservatives who have looked askance at federal government forays into the private sector.
Former Vice President Mike Pence has emerged as a national leader for a return to traditional conservatism. He said: “This midterm election wasn’t a rout, it was a reckoning,” arguing it was a voter rejection of populism and time for a return to traditional Republican principles.”
All of this creates “a time of choosing” for the Republican Party – both in terms of its core principles and in the selection of a 2028 standard bearer.
(Lowman S. Henry is Chairman & CEO of the Lincoln Institute and host of the weekly American Radio Journal and Lincoln Radio Journal. His e-mail address is lhenry@lincolninstitute.org.)
Permission to reprint is granted provided author and affiliation are cited.